China holds the switch on Western defence.
Antimony sits inside ammunition, armour-piercing rounds, night-vision systems, missile guidance and flame-retardant materials used across every NATO member state’s military, and China controls 80 to 90 percent of global antimony refining capacity. When Beijing introduced export controls in August 2024, Chinese antimony exports collapsed by roughly 97 percent and global antimony trioxide prices nearly doubled almost overnight. A partial commercial suspension announced in late 2025 has been misread as a resolution: the clause banning exports to military end-users was never lifted.[1]
- ~97% · Export collapse, Aug 2024
- 80–90% · Chinese refining share
- Nov 2026 · Suspension expiry
- $245M · Pentagon stockpile contract, 2025